Basics of MACD

Build Alpha: Basic video explaining and testing Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on some popular Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) such as: SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD and more.

Intraday Edge: Find strategies backwards

A large consideration of developing trading systems should be how efficient our capital is working for us. The quicker we can realize profits, the more trades we can make thus allowing our capital to compound more quickly. Additionally, sitting in positions for long periods increases our risk to extraneous events.

More importantly, it is typically easier to find daily or higher timeframe edges than intraday edges due to the increased noise in intraday data.

Is there a way to reduce the time in a position which would increase our trade count (via number of strategies) which would then allow us to arrive at the law of large numbers more quickly and therefore allow our capital to compound more quickly?

Yep. One of the new features in Build Alpha, called “Intraday Edge”, is a tool which allows us to do exactly that. It allows us to dig deeper into daily trading strategies to see if we can make them more efficient by reducing their holding times into smaller intraday time windows. Maybe we can capture most of the daily strategy’s edge during only a small portion of the typical holding time. That’s right.. turning daily strategies into intraday strategies.

A simple example can help clarify the power of this new feature…

First, let’s take an original daily trading system. I will use a simple one rule strategy that goes long the SP500 futures contract whenever the trading session closes in the bottom 20% of the day’s range (internal bar strength or internal bar rank – IBR in Build Alpha). We then hold that long position for 1 day. This assumes about a 23 hour risk (i.e., one Globex trading session).

However, what if we could dig into this strategy and realize that most of the gains only come from 1 am EST to 4 am EST? We can then reduce our holding time by about 87% which now only ties up our capital for 3 hours as opposed to 23! This gives us an additional 20 hours to utilize other strategies to continue to grow our capital while still capturing a large portion of the original daily strategy’s edge.

Imagine we only had enough capital for one strategy. This Intraday Edge feature can now make our capital work much harder by finding intraday edge strategies for multiple markets/times of the day. Tying up capital for 23 hours in one daily strategy vs. trading 7 different intraday edge strategies with the same capital.

*Original strategy can be reduced by Intraday Edge which allows other intraday strategies to be traded with the same capital that was orignially tied up by the daily strategy*

In the end, it makes our once daily system much more efficient. Check out the performance metrics of the original daily system compared to the new “Intraday Edge” version.

So how can this be accomplished in Build Alpha? It is simple.

1. Highlight any daily strategy
2. Click the Test Settings in the bottom right to configure the intraday timeframe you want to use
3. Hit the Intraday Edge button

BuildAlpha will then search all possible holding periods within the original strategy’s trading duration to see if there is a more efficient version with reduced holding times. You can include the original strategy’s exit criteria such as stops, etc. or choose to exclude them. Flexibility to test everything is always key in Build Alpha.

Intraday Edge can even be used on different markets at the same time. For example, imagine an original system built on Gold daily bars but then we search for an intraday edge version that trades oil but only during this specific 2 hour window while the original Gold System has an active signal.

This Intraday Edge feature essentially allows us to search for intraday and multi-timeframe strategies in a new way. In this above Gold and Oil example we have a multi-timeframe AND intermarket strategy created from a simple Gold daily strategy.

You can still search for multi-timeframe and intraday strategies in the original/traditional way. That is, just searching the intraday data from the start. However, it is often faster and easier to find daily strategies then work them into intraday ones. At least now with Build Alpha you have the option to search both ways. Something not possible elsewhere.

And of course, all of the adjustments from the Intraday Edge feature are then applied to the code generators so you can automate these Intraday Edge systems with one click as with everything.

As always, I will keep attempting to add flexibility and ways to dig deeper so we can have the best trading strategies possible. Leave no stone unturned and test everything!

Thanks for reading,

David

Originally Posted: https://www.buildalpha.com/intraday-edge/

Noise Test Parameter Optimization

In short, this is a new feature that allows us to optimize strategies across noise adjusted data series as opposed to the traditional method of optimization which only optimizes across the single historical price series.

The problem we face is the historical data is merely only one possible path of what *could* have happened. We need to prepare ourselves for the probable future not the certain past. In order to do this, we can generate synthetic price series that have altered amounts of noise/volatility than the actual historical data. This provides us with a rough sample of some alternate realities and potentially what can happen going forward. This is the exact type of data that can help us build more robust strategies that can succeed across whatever the market throws at us – which is our end goal in all of this, right?

Let’s look at a Noise Test Parameter Optimization (NTO) case study to show exactly how it works…

I have built a strategy from 2004 to 2016 that does quite well. The strategy’s performance over this period is shown below…

Now, if we right click on the strategy and select optimize, we can generate a sensitivity graph that shows how our strategy performs as we alter some parameters. This is done on the original historical price data with no noise adjusted data sample added (yet). We simply retrade different variations of parameter settings on the single historical price data and plot the respective performances. This is how most platforms allow you to optimize parameters and I want to show how misleading it can be to traders. The rule I’ve optimized had original parameter values of X = 9 and Y = 4 (black arrow). The sensitivity graph is shown below. Each plot consists of three points: parameter 1, parameter 2 and the resulting profit.

Build Alpha: We can see the original parameters are near a sensitive area on the surface where performance degrades in the surrounding areas. Performance drops pretty hard near our original strategy’s parameters which means slight alterations to the future price data’s characteristics can degrade our strategy’s performance quite a bit. Not what we want at all and, as we all know, there will be alterations to future price’s characteristics! How many times has a backtest not matched live results? Perhaps more robust parameter selection can help

The more robust selection using the typical simple optimization method on the historical data shows we should probably pick a parameter more near X = 8 and Y = 8 (pictured arrow below). This is the traditional method taught in textbooks, trading blogs, etc. We optimize on the single historical data then find a flat/non-peaked area close to our original parameters and use those new parameters.

However, if we run BuildAlpha’s Noise Test Optimization with up to 50% noise alterations and 50 data samples (green box below), we see a much different picture. What this does is, instead of optimizing on one historical path we now optimize across the one historical path AND 50 noise altered data series. The sensitivity graph shows a much different picture when optimized across the 51 data series. We are less concerned with the total profit and loss but rather the shape of the surface…

Originally Posted: http://buildalpha.com/noise-test-parameter-optimization

Make Task Investing Easy

Investment in stocks in such a volatile market nowadays has become a cause of concern and how to manage one’s finances. Most of the people ask their fund managers to invest in quality stocks at this point in time. Which is the best asset class to invest in and how to manage your portfolio? Some people think that investment is the most straightforward aspect of financial planning, whereas nobody knows the correct answer and is debatable. But now, with the advancement of technology, things have become quite more comfortable and if we look at the broader pictures with investing tools like Build Alpha, it is far easier to invest and trade with the best expertise available with you at every point of time.

Investment in the capital markets can be comparatively easier than other asset classes or yield drivers. One should invest smartly and systematically keeping in view the returns on your investment, but most of the investors do it otherwise, and everything is turned around like not placing the upside-down cake correctly, thus the toppings at the bottom scatters. With a tool like Build Alpha now investing activity has become way easier as it gives proper analysis of the trend of the market.

Especially for the new age investors who have just entered the market, they can quickly get the knowledge in the simplified version through this unique tool. It is very user friendly and an easy to access tool that serves just perfect for solving the queries and dilemmas of new as well the experienced traders and investors. Even if you are dealing in the market for long-term, there ought to be something or the other that may bother you or you may not understand as the market is quite volatile and it is quite difficult to depict the pattern well.

Here is where BuildAlpha comes into play by helping you out with that uncertain motions of the market where you fear to take your next steps. As with unpredicted levels and economic uncertainty of course comes a lot of risks. Build Alpha can help you identify these risks to hopefully sidestep them before they affect your portfolio.

Very well written by Warren Buffet, there are lots of ups and downs in the stock market, and one should be patient. That is why he termed the capital market where investing is a no-called-strike game. So now, with this unique and very useful tool, it has become much simpler to invest in the capital markets and earn money, and the same time the fear of losing will be minimized as now you have experienced moves, tested them and are ready for the next one. Therefore, do the research of the markets with the help of Build Alpha before you are interested in investing and before new risks hit the market.

Originally Posted: http://buildalpha.us/make-task-investing-easy/

Volatility Filters Into Stock Market Decline

The recent volatility, like all volatility events, has brought some traders a fortune and others pain.

The ability to identify volatility regimes is paramount!

Correct identification of volatility shifts gives one the ability to adjust size, turn strategies off, enable hedging strategies, etc.

Ideally, a trader should have strategies for every market regime. If one can identify which regime and price action characteristics are likely (or unlikely) then plenty of stress can be removed and a certain level of robustness is added to the trader’s portfolio.

In this post, I want to discuss four ‘volatility identifiers’ that can hopefully be used to either avoid or capitalize on the next volatility event.

These have been powerful indicators to add to trading systems to help decide when on/off, filtering and of course sizing.

Are they a be all end all? No.

Are they predictive? No.

Are they a holy grail? No.

Should you ignore them? No!

I will only examine these volatility regimes based upon tomorrow’s range and tomorrow’s return. 

They can of course be expanded to look at 5 days forward, 20 days forward, etc. but this is left up to the reader.

Plotted below is how these volatility identifiers affect the S&P 500’s next day range and return. The X-axis is the volatility identifier and the Y Axis is the S&P 500 range (or return) for the next day.

BuildAlpha: In short, the level of these volatility identifiers has a BIG impact on what you can expect for tomorrow’s session and thus your trading systems can/should take a look to see if these can help improve performance or even alert to when some strategies should be ‘offline’!

1) Treasury Spreads vs. S&P 500 Futures. When the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield is too flat or too steep things tend to get volatile.  The x-axis is the basis points of this spread. This is the only goldilocks identifier in this post where volatility increases at both extremes of this indicator but mellows out in the middle of the range.

2) Whenever the front month VIX futures contract is trading above the second nearest month by more than 5-10% things tend to get volatile. Here is the VIX futures curve in March of 2019 vs. March 2020 as well as the contango percent.

3) Whenever SPX index’s option gamma exposure (GEX) is negative things tend to be more volatile. Gamma exposure is the total sum of gamma (option greek) multiplied by open interest of the calls minus the sum of gamma multiplied by the open interest of the puts. This gives us a sense of where/how option market makers are positioned. When GEX is negative things tend to get volatile.

4) Whenever the S&P 500 components’ gamma exposure is negative things tend to be more volatile as well. Obviously very correlated to #3 but important to note the distinction. This is like above but is the aggregate of the actual options on the ~500 stocks in the index vs. the options on the index itself.

There are other volatility identifiers such as Dark Pool Index (DIX), counting the number of S&P 500 stocks above/below the 50 day moving average, number of new highs vs. new lows, economic data filters, etc.

Also, to be fair, Gamma Exposure and Dark Pool Index were first published here: https://squeezemetrics.com/download/white_paper.pdf and pointed out to me by a bunch of Build Alpha users. I want to give credit to where it is due.

In the latest Build Alpha update all of these volatility identifiers, economic data and market breadth filters will be included and testable at the click of a button. Even possible to automate them as part of your strategies built and/or improved by Build Alpha.

I am looking forward to a post COVID world and what the market will bring us on the other side. Be prepared! Any questions please contact me at david@buildalpha.com

Originally Posted: https://www.seeitmarket.com/a-look-at-volatility-filters-into-recent-stock-market-decline/

Build Alpha Update

Build Alpha: In the latest update it is now easier than ever to modify the built-in signals, optimize parameters across noise adjusted data series and other symbols, create rebalance strategies, search for intraday edges and new signals including Gamma Exposure, Dark Pool Index and more.

Ideal Investing Tool

Trading and Investing is not an easy job and it is best if you have an expert’s advice or better yet a true quantified edge. To gather expert advice and quantified edge, there is a unique tool on the market which is designed specifically for trading and investing purposes. It will serve the purpose for the new investors, and for the existing ones who are experienced in providing them with expert advice, new methods of testing and validation. Build Alpha is the ideal software that will help you creating a trading or investing plan that experts would be proud of.

With this best investing tool, you inevitably live in the golden age of stock market investing. You will get unlimited information, which everyone can reach who is using the software. Build Alpha provides unparalleled data, signals and testing methods to help you build the best trading or investing strategies. It is such a unique tool which will help you in many ways.

It is very economical and is of great tool which small investors are taking great advantage of. These small investors spend next to nothing for tools, the best investing tools, and knowledge. If you’re someone who is invested in the stock market, you should surely look at BuildAlpha. It can even help you analyze your existing trading or investing strategies as well as help you create new ones.

Features of Build Alpha Investing Tool

1. The first advantage that you get from this tool, Build Alpha is the ability to test thousands of trading and investment signals without having to write any code yourself. You can select from candlestick patterns, technical indicators, volume, market breadth studies, intermarket signals, multi-timeframe signals and much more to test, create and build your perfect investment strategy – all is done point and click with no programming. This gives the trader and investor a significant advantage because of the amount of time saved.

2. Free Portfolio Analysis – Another feature that you should check for is the portfolio analysis or Portfolio Mode. With the help of Build Alpha, all the aspiring investors can analyze their portfolios for prospect and opportunity. This portfolio analysis tool will not cost a lot of money and will give you a lot of investing tools and tests you can use. It will offer you tremendous robust analysis tools. These tools possess a piece of expert advice which actually feels like it contains various experts. The tools also allow you to run simulations, find efficient quantitative test and factor-based financing models.

Individual stock investors can use this software for to find the best portfolio for their risk return desires. Investors can track trades, calculate risk-adjusted revenues, and conduct quantitative research. It will also assist you in maintaining your portfolio as a whole rather than just your individual strategies and positions.

3. Education of Investors

To compete in today’s market, traders and investors need proper tools and education. Build Alpha comes complete with private training video course to assist new and advanced traders and investors on how to properly build strategies, test them and construct proper portfolios for individual risk/reward characteristics. This is an all in one tool that comes complete with training. This gives Build Alpha users significant advantage over their counterparts still attempting to learn and build strategies manually.

Originally Posted: http://buildalpha.us/ideal-investing-tool/