Improving Strategies

A crazy cool way to use Build Alpha. I have to admit that I did not come up with this idea, but it was suggested to me by a potential Build Alpha user.

He was wondering if Build Alpha could help come up with some rules of when he should avoid trading his existing strategy or even when to fade his existing strategy. Heck any improvement is a plus, right?

**Please note Build Alpha now accepts data in this format:  mm/dd/yyyy, hh:mm, open, high, low, close, volume, OI. Please refer to buildalpha.com/demo page for adding own data instructions**

*I say we found one strategy but we actually found tons that would be an improvement to his original strategy. Him and I only spoke specifically about one so that’s why in the video I slip and say we found one strategy. Did not feel like making a new video to clarify this minor point.*

He had a day trading system and compiled profit and loss results for that system in the following (Build Alpha accepted) format. Date, time, open, high, low, close, volume.  (*note BuildAlpha now accepts the time column as intraday capabilities are becoming fully operational*).

Below is his sample file. We purposely left the open (high and low) columns as all 0’s. The close column contains the end of day p&l from his original strategy.

We then set Build Alpha to have a maximum one bar holding period and to ONLY enter on the next bar’s open and to the ONLY exit on the next bar’s close. I will explain why this is in a minute.

We then chose the underlying symbol the original strategy was built on as market2. So for example, his original strategy trades ES (S&P500 Emini futures) so we only select Build Alpha signals calculated on Market2 which is set for ES.

So now if Build Alpha calculates a rule on ES-like close[0] <= square root(high[0] * low[0]) then we would “buy” the next bar’s open of market1 (again his results – which are 0) and “sell” the next bar’s close of his results which is the original strategy’s p&l for that day. This would essentially say that if this rule is true then go ahead with a green light to trade the original strategy the next day. If the rules are not true, then don’t trade the original strategy the next day. Ideally, we can find rules that increase risk-adjusted returns for the original strategy (which we did).

Now, what is even cooler is if we set Build Alpha to find short strategies we would essentially be “fading” his original strategy or finding rules of when to go opposite his original strategy.

Build Alpha found some good short/ “fade” rules to use as well. Here is an example that did quite well fading his original strategy (even out of sample – highlighted section).

After emailing him the results here is what he had to say in his email response:

“There are 2028 negative periods in my data with a gross loss of -1,217,880.26. That’s the theoretical maximum a short rule can achieve, if it were to find all losses. Your graph seems to show 380,000 short rule profits. That’s already 31% of all losses. If I don’t trade on these days, my net profit would go up by 380,000, a 46% increase.”

I thought this was a really unique way to use BuildAlpha and I wanted to share. I think the same analysis can be done on strategies with longer holding periods too. I would just import daily marked to market results of the original strategy and Build Alpha would essentially find rules of when to hedge your strategy or fade it for a day or two. I think this is certainly a unique approach to add some alpha to performance.

Anyways, thanks for reading as always and keep a lookout for some MAJOR upgrades coming to Build Alpha very soon!

Originally Posted: http://buildalpha.us/improving-strategies/

Perks Of Using Trading Software

Stock trading has become a significant market segment. Every third person is dealing with the same trend. This segment of the market serves a great set of the potential to make a lot of money. There are instances where you will observe some of the wealthiest persons in society have made their estates in stock markets and investments; they have earned tremendously from this asset class.

However, most do not have a financial background or business degrees. It is not just their own expertise that has led them to such success in the market, but it is the assistance of trading and investment software. Software like Build Alpha can help guide traders and investors through tricky markets and identify the biggest trends that lead to wealth accumulation and a better understanding of the market.

This software Build Alpha, helps them gain an entire overview. Beginners will be guided on the underlying trend of the market as well as advanced traders and investors who can find specific trends for stocks of interest. There are several thousands of people who are contemplating to make money in the stock market by analyzing a mixture of approaches. There are also, unfortunately, many business organizations that create lies, false narratives and sell misinformed ‘courses’ to naïve investors. Build Alpha software allows the investor to research the data himself and only trust the numbers, not some lie a business is selling.

This is the primary cause that stock trading software has become so popular with investors as the software can allow investors to execute their trading strategy quickly, based on facts and systematically. There are several goods of utilizing an automated trading system or stock investing software to make money in the stock exchange.

Originally Posted: http://buildalpha.us/perks-of-using-trading-software/

Forward Simulator and Variance Testing

Build Alpha allows users to simulate how a strategy would perform in the next x trades based on varying win percentages. It uses the back test's distribution to simulate future performance.

E-Ratio

Edge Ratio or E-Ratio measures how much a trade goes in your favor vs. how much a trade goes against you. The x-axis is the number of bars since the trading signal. A higher y-value signifies more “edge” at that step in time.

BuildAlpha: Measurements are normalized for volatility; this allows us to use e-ratio across all markets and regimes. Once normalized for volatility, 1 signifies that we have equal amounts of favorable movement compared to adverse movement.

In other words, the y-axis is an expression of how many units of volatility more or against you your trade gets. A measure of 1.2 would indicate .2 units more of favorable volatility and a measure of 0.8 would indicate .2 units more of adverse movement.

Build Alpha: The blue line is for the selected strategy’s signal and the red line is for a “random” strategy for the same market. The red line is to serve as a baseline to beat. Ideally, you’ll want to see a blue line above 1 and above the random line.

You may find many “good” strategies, but they may have an E-Ratio less than the red baseline or less than one. This would make us less confident that our signal will withstand the test of time.
Additionally, if E-Ratio falls off a cliff at bar 6… then it probably does not make sense to hold for 15 bars!

Another tool to make sure Build Alpha + Trader = Success.

How to calculate:

1. Record Maximum Adverse Excursion and Maximum Favorable Excursion at each time step since signal.
2. Normalize MAE and MFE for volatility. To compare across markets we need a common denominator. Let’s use ATR or a unit of volatility.
3. Average all MFE and MAE values. Now you should have average MFE and average MAE at 1 bar since signal. Average MFE and average MAE at 2 bars since signal…
4. Divide Average MFE by Average MAE at each time step.

Originally Posted: https://www.buildalpha.com/e-ratio/